“Pit race against race, religion against religion, prejudice against prejudice. Divide and conquer! We must not let that happen here.”- Eleanor Roosevelt

By Glen Reaux

The 2020 national elections are just around the corner and in the hallowed halls of the Grand Old Party (GOP) of rich old White men often referred to in elite circles as “Great White America”, knees are knocking and trembling with fear.  Fear is running rampant in these hallowed halls of hypocritical, White Christian, political ideologues that the inmates are about to start running the asylum.  The GOP has been hijacked by a self-serving conman, long ostracized by the wealthy establishment for what he is, a fraud, a joke, a dangerous uncontrollable mouthpiece that is an embarrassment to their dignity and elite status.  This is a status that is represented as the American Dream that most of the general populace aspires to attain.  The madman, “lying Donald Trump” lacks discipline, control, couth, a long-term plan, his word is not his bond, he is untrustworthy.  Most importantly, the elite fear that the overt sexism, misogyny, racism and vitriol spewed from his mouth will incite the masses to rise up and change the status quo.  The subtle psychological warfare of divide and conquer, that the GOP with help from its right-wing think tanks has carefully waged for decades, is being exposed and replaced with a more volatile less political correct (PC) message of hatred, conspiracy theories, deep state control, violence and often times unintelligible gibberish, yes unintelligible gibberish.  Gibberish that only inspires discontent, hatred, insurrection and acts of violence that greatly offends the decency of women and more importantly middle-class Whites, whose votes are needed to keep the Republican Party in power.  There is an unprecedented fear that Trump will cause women and minorities to unite in a new movement to restore decency and once-and-for-all equality to all Americans in voting rights and economic opportunities.  The fear is also that such a movement will cause independents to heaven-forbid, vote for a Democratic candidate and defeat the misogynistic Trump.  So, Women and People of Color  are The Key to Winning 2020 Elections if only a small percentage of independents vote democratic.

The Republican Party has a proven history of being led by racist presidents that goes back hundreds of years.  And, since the end of World War II, they have dug in with laws and policies designed to oppress people of color.  Of the seven Republican presidents since then, only one, Gerald Ford has taken a stand against racism and he was not elected to the office.  Herein lays the problem.  Since the end of WWII, the American political landscape has changed.  This change has impacted the electorate in such a way that it is no longer one that will be dominated by white-male, blue-collar voters in the future. These are the factors that are changing the American electorate today and will continue for the foreseeable future.

1. The ethnic makeup of this nation has changed drastically
2. Women have been empowered
3. Interracial marriage is legal and acceptable (the myth of the pure-white-race is dead)
4. The populace is better educated
5. Millennials have a moral and environmental imperative
6. Information technology revolution which includes social media
7. There are more women and minorities in politics and in positions of power

The racial advantage for White people in America has been on a constant decline since the end of WWII.  Just prior to WWII, in 1940 White people constituted approximately 80% of the American population with Black people at 12% and other races including American Indians, making up the balance of 8%.  Since the late 80s, the statistical emphasis has changed from racial measurement to one of ethnic measurement.  Race refers to a person’s physical characteristics, such as bone structure and skin, hair, or eye color.  Ethnicity, however, refers to cultural factors, including nationality, regional culture, ancestry, and language.  Since people of Mexican and Central American ancestries and other nationalities migrating to America are considered to be White despite the fact that many of them are a product of interracial marriages, the change to ethnic measurement offered a more reliable picture of the cultural factors that impact our society.

Statistical data¹ from the U.S. census bureau dating back to the year 2000 finds that the ethnic White population dropped from 75.1% in the year 2000 to 63.7% in 2010.  The Black population remained relatively constant around 12% and the Hispanic population surpassed the Black population rising from 12.5% to 16.3% in 2010.  This trend is expected to accelerate in the coming decades.

In a 2018 report provided by the Metropolitan Policy Bureau of the Brooking s Institute², a non-partisan think tank, an analysis of the census data revised in September of 2018 illustrates that by 2045, ethnic Whites will become the minority population.  According to the report, the U.S. population will be 49.7% White, 24.6% Hispanic, 13.1% Black, 7.9% Asian, 3.8% Multiracial, and 0.9% other.  Which means, that one generation from now, Whites will be in the minority and in a democracy, they can be out voted.  This is a future that an oppressive political party aka GOP will do anything to avert.  And for a party that has done everything possible to stay in power which includes stealing the 2000 and 2004 elections and possibly conspiring with the Russians to win the 2016 elections, even the unimaginable is possible and probable.

It is this truer picture based upon ethnicity that has frightened the Republican Party to the point of panic which is represented by the deceit and unethical practices that permeates their political ideology and strategies.  The fear of falling off of the cliff of White-majority-political-power into the abyss of an unpredictable, uncontrollable, homogeneous, gender and ethnic melting pot society is what will power their ruthless and probably immoral political strategies into the 2020 national elections.  However, their fear-driven strategies which will surely not reach out to ethnic minorities with a message of inclusion must answer these four pertinent questions.

1. How do we deal with Donald Trump and his lies?
2. How do we attract women voters?
3. What is the message for independents?
4. Oh my God, what do we do with millennials and their environmental and moral imperatives?

In a 2012 Gallop poll³, the ethnic makeup of the Republican Party was 89% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian and 1% other and 1% undesignated.  In stark contrast, the Democratic Party was 66% White, 22% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian 1% other and 2% undesignated.

A more detailed look into what political parties are supported by different ethnic groups is even more alarming for Republicans.  According to the same poll, only 35% of Whites identify as Republicans while 26% identify as Democrat and 38% identify as Independent.  Minority support for the Republican Party mirrors its minority membership.  This is disastrous.  It is with the Independent voters that the hope and future of the Republican Party lay.

Because the Republican Party with its racist ideologies and practices such as gerrymandering and voter suppression have so offended ethnic minorities, it is a hopeless cause for them to attempt to recruit Black, Brown and Asian voters this late in the day.  In normal times, even as late as 2014, the party could count on the vote of White women.  But according to a 2019 Pew study^4, this normally reliable sector can no be counted no longer on.  Other significant changes have also developed in the political landscape that will negatively impact the Republicans.  Of registered voters in 2017, 50% identified as Democrat while only 42% identified as Republican and the trend is widening.  Since 2015, the trend among women voters has risen to a point where 56% identify as or leaning Democrat.  This trend is consistent with White women leaving the Republican Party in protest to the misogyny and sexist comments of the current Republican President, “lying Donald Trump.”  Just as troubling is the news that among college-educated Americans 54% of non-doctoral graduates and 63% of postgraduates are Democrats.  This trend has been on a steady rise since 2010.

In a striking comparison to the Republican Party which is represented by only 23 women in the House of Representatives, 64 women represent the Democratic Party.  In the House of Representatives, only 2 of the 35 ethnic minority women are Republicans.  Of the 23 women serving in the Senate, only 4 identify as minorities and all are Democrats.  Of the 235 Democrats in the House, 28% are women as opposed to 11.5% in the Republican Party.  Among Democrats 94 or 40% are minorities while only 19 or only 9% of the Republican lawmakers are minorities.  Among the minorities in the House of Representatives, Elijah Cummings of Maryland Chairs the Committee on Oversight and Reform and Maxine Waters of California Chairs the House Committee on Financial Services.  These are two of the most powerful positions in Congress.  The most powerful position in the House of Representatives is the Speaker of the House which is currently being held by Nancy Pelosi, a Democratic Woman from California.  Judging by the gender and ethnic diversity of the Democratic Party, it provides more opportunity and is more representative of what the face of America looks like today.

With the help of Russian interference, in 2016 Donald Trump won the Electoral College with 304 votes and lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.  Since that time, the Republicans in Congress has bent over backward to support and protect their president.  As the leader of the Republican Party that has garnered unwavering support and protection from Republicans in Congress, it is safe to say that he is representative of what the party stands for.  And, on behalf of the Republican Party, Trump speaks loudly about women and minorities:

1. “26,000 unreported sexual assults in the military-only 238 convictions. What did these geniuses expect when they put men & women together?” – Trump, May 7, 2013 Tweet
2. “Women have one of the great acts of all time. The smart ones act very feminine and needy, but inside they are real killers. The person who came up with the expression ‘the weaker sex’ was either very naive or had to be kidding. I have seen women manipulate men with just a twitch of their eye—or perhaps another body part.” – Trump – The Art of the Comeback, 1977
3. “You know, it doesn’t really matter what [the media] write as long as you’ve got a young and beautiful piece of ass.” – Trump, 1991 interview with Esquire Magazine
4. “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? Can you imagine that, the face of our next president? I mean, she’s a woman, and I’m not supposed to say bad things, but really, folks, come on. Are we serious?” – Trump comment about fellow Republican and 2016 presidential candidate Carly Fiorina.
5. “@ariannahuff is unattractive both inside and out. I fully understand why her former husband left her for a man- he made a good decision.” – Trump, August 12, 2012 Tweet about Arianna Huffington
6. “If Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps, I would be dating her. Is that terrible?” 2006 Trump quote from the View TV show
7. “Congresswoman Maxine Waters, an extraordinarily low IQ person, has become, together with Nancy Pelosi, the Face of the Democrat Party.” – June 25, 2018 Tweet
8. “Why are we having all these people from shit-hole countries come here?” in reference to Haiti, El Salvador and African nations. Trump then suggested that the U.S. try to increase immigration from countries like Norway. – 2017 Oval Office discussion on immigration.
9. “They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people” – In launching his 2016 Presidential campaign Trump spoke of Mexican immigrants
10. “I’ve got to use some Tic Tacs, just in case I start kissing her. You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful—I just start kissing them. It’s like a magnet. Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy.” – 2005 Access Hollywood tape

Unlike the Democrats, the GOP has a long and troubled history of being racist.  They have not adjusted to or even attempted to address the needs of the people.  The face of America has changed and has become more ethnically and gender diverse.  The Democratic Party has changed as evidenced by its congressional representation in both the Senate and the House.  In the 2020 national elections, they are continuing by offering a very ethnically and gender diverse slate of qualified presidential candidates.  Just the opposite is true with the GOP.  Currently, within his party, Trump has a 90% approval rating which is a historical high and he may be striking fear into the hearts of possible Republican presidential contenders.   On the surface, either no one seems to have the courage to challenge Trump or they are in lock-step with him in all things, all the way to the polls.  Either way, considering their history with women and minorities and in having Donald Trump as the spokesperson for the GOP shouting vitriol from the top of his lungs, there is no wonder as to why the Republican Party’s worst nightmare is women and people of color, and rightfully so.

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Linked Sources and Documentation

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1. S. Census Bureau: National Population Estimates Decennial census
2. Brookings Institute: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2018/03/14/the-us-will-become-minority-white-in-2045-census-projects/
3. Gallop poll: https://news.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx
4. Pew Research Center:  http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/
5. Pilot Study:  http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/

Copyright © 2019, Glen Reaux, all rights reserved